Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Moore’s Law is Over (Again)

According to this article in Nature, Moore's Law is officially done. And bears poop in the woods.

Note when the time axis ends...
Note when the time axis ends…

There was a time, a few years back, when the constant exponential growth rate of the number of transistors packed into an IC was taken for granted: every two years, a doubling in density. After all, it was a "law" proposed by Gordon E. Moore, founder of Intel. Less a law than a production goal for a silicon manufacturer, it proved to be a very useful marketing gimmick.

Rumors of the death of Moore's law usually stir up every couple years, and then Intel would figure out a way to pack things even more densely. But lately, even Intel has admitted that the pace of miniaturization has to slow down. And now we have confirmation in Nature: the cost of Intel continuing its rate of miniaturization is less than the benefit.

We've already gotten used to CPU speed increases slowing way down in the name of energy efficiency, so this isn't totally new territory. Do we even care if the Moore's-law rate slows down by 50%? How small do our ICs need to be?

Graph by [Wgsimon] via Wikipedia.


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